NNPC says Nigeria now pumps 1.8m barrels a day. Here is what the regulator's figures show

NNPC's group chief executive, Bayo Ojulari, says Nigeria's oil output has climbed by about 600,000 barrels a day under the current reforms. He told the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday that production had risen from about 1.2 million to 1.8 million barrels a day.

"The figure of 1.8 million barrels per day is a stage in a journey," he said, according to NNPC's press release. The company's goal is 2 million barrels a day by 2027.

What the regulator's numbers say

The official monthly figures come from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), not from NNPC. Its latest report, for September, gives a lower average.

• Crude oil alone averaged about 1.53 million barrels a day, Premium Times and Nairametrics reported from NUPRC data.
• Crude plus condensate averaged 1.717 million barrels a day, up 2.34% from August.
• The highest single day in September reached 1.84 million barrels, according to Premium Times.

So 1.8 million is close to the regulator's best day in September, and above its monthly average, even when condensate is counted. NNPC's release does not say whether its figure includes condensate, or which month or period it refers to.

NNPC has used a similar measure before. In early October it put September output at 1.821 million barrels a day "including condensates", Business Post reported.

Why the gap matters

The two bodies are not necessarily in conflict. A peak day, a monthly average and a figure with or without condensate can all be correct at once. But they are not the same thing, and only the crude figure counts towards Nigeria's OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels a day.

In September, crude output was about 102% of that quota, the fifth month in a row that Nigeria met it. We explain the different measures in how to read Nigeria's oil output figures.

What else NNPC said

Ojulari credited the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021, better investment terms and closer work with partners. He said commercial agreements worth about $20 billion had been concluded, naming TotalEnergies' Ubeta, Shell's Bonga South-West and Eni's Zabazaba projects. He gave no breakdown of the sum.

He also repeated NNPC's gas targets of 10 billion cubic feet a day by 2027 and 12 billion by 2030.

What it means for you

More oil means more dollars coming into the country, which helps the naira, and more crude for local refineries such as Dangote. Both can ease pressure on fuel prices over time.

When you hear a production figure, ask two things: is it a monthly average or a single day, and does it include condensate? NUPRC's October figures, when they come out, will show whether output is holding up.