Analyst says petrol could reach ₦1,411 in Lagos this month, but crude has just fallen sharply
An energy analyst says freight and insurance costs could push the Lagos pump price up by about ₦56. Marketers' groups doubt it, and Brent crude has dropped to a four-week low this week.
In 30 seconds
- Kelvin Emmanuel of The Energy Consulting Practice told Nairametrics petrol could hit about ₦1,411 a litre in Lagos in November.
- IPMAN and PETROAN spokesmen said a rise was not on the cards; one independent marketer said prices could pass ₦1,400.
- Brent crude fell $8.66 on Monday and settled at $103.60 a barrel on Tuesday, its lowest close since 7 October, Reuters reported.
- NNPC stations in Lagos were selling at ₦1,355 a litre at the start of the week.
Will petrol get dearer again before Christmas? One analyst thinks so. The people who run filling stations are not convinced, and the oil market moved the other way this week.
The forecast
Kelvin Emmanuel, managing partner of The Energy Consulting Practice, told Nairametrics that petrol could sell for about ₦1,411 a litre in Lagos in November. That would be about ₦56 above the ₦1,355 NNPC stations in Lagos were charging on Monday, according to Legit.ng.
His estimate assumes that freight, insurance and other import charges stay where they are for November cargoes. He said physical cargoes cost about $30 more than futures prices suggest, and that the Dangote refinery buys about 40% of its crude abroad. He added about ₦35 a litre for trucking.
Marketers push back
Chinedu Ukadike of IPMAN called the projection speculative and said marketers were not planning an increase. He said petrol already sells for around ₦1,400 a litre in some parts of the country.
Joseph Obele of PETROAN also doubted a rise, pointing to falling crude prices. Isa Alheri, an independent marketer, said prices could go above ₦1,400, depending on the market.
Crude has dropped
Crude has fallen hard this week. Brent dropped $8.66 on Monday to settle at $104.77 a barrel, then slipped another $1.17 on Tuesday to $103.60, Reuters reported. That was its lowest close since 7 October. Traders were weighing hopes that peace talks could end the wars in Ukraine and Iran.
Brent had ended October at a six-month high. Crude is the biggest part of the cost of petrol, whether it is refined in Lagos or imported. Our explainer sets out how landing cost feeds into your pump price.
What it means for you
A ₦1,411 Lagos price is one analyst's estimate, not an announcement. If crude stays near this week's lower level, the pressure he describes eases.
Pump prices tend to follow crude and the naira after a delay, so watch NNPC and Dangote announcements rather than forecasts. If you buy in bulk for a generator or a business, there is no clear case yet for stocking up early.
Words to know
- Brent
- The world benchmark price for crude oil, in US dollars per barrel.
- Landing cost
- What it costs to bring a litre of imported petrol into Nigeria, before marketers add their margins.
- IPMAN
- The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria.
- PETROAN
- The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria.
Sources
- Nairametrics: Petrol could hit ₦1,411/litre in November as freight, insurance premiums bite (3 Nov 2026)
- Reuters via The Star: Oil eases to four-week low on peace hopes (4 Nov 2026)
- Reuters via AsiaOne: Oil prices ease to settle near 4-week low (4 Nov 2026)
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance: Oil prices, Monday settlement (3 Nov 2026)
- Legit.ng: NNPC reverses increase, announces new petrol pump prices (2 Nov 2026)
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