The IEA raises its forecast for new renewable power in sub-Saharan Africa by 54 per cent

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has become much more hopeful about solar and other renewable power in sub-Saharan Africa.

Its yearly outlook, Renewables 2026, released last week, raises the agency's forecast of new renewable capacity in the region by 54 per cent compared with last year's edition, according to reports by Trend and GreenTechLead. More than 80 per cent of the new capacity in the region is expected to be solar panels.

We could not open the report itself on the IEA website, so the figures here come from four outlets that reported it.

The bigger picture

Worldwide, the IEA expects almost 4,800 GW of new renewable capacity to be added between 2026 and 2031. Most outlets say that is 57 per cent more than in the previous six years; one, APA, says about 60 per cent.

For the first time, the agency expects developing economies outside China to add as much as rich countries, Trend reported. China's share of new capacity is forecast to fall from over 60 per cent in 2025 to an average of 53 per cent, ThisDay reported.

Capacity additions in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa are forecast to "nearly triple" compared with the previous six years. In the Middle East and North Africa, renewable capacity is expected to more than double.

The IEA's Executive Director, Fatih Birol, said energy security is now the main reason countries are building renewables, ThisDay reported.

Solar without the grid

The report expects off-grid solar to grow two and a half times, to about 80 GW by 2031. Pakistan, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia are named as the main growth markets.

The IEA also says rooftop solar added since 2022 has improved access to electricity for at least 70 million households worldwide. The outlets that reported it do not say how many of those are in Africa.

None of the reports we read named Nigeria or gave figures for individual African countries.

What it means for you

A higher forecast is not a power station. It means the IEA now expects more money and more projects to come to Africa than it did a year ago, mostly solar. For Nigerians, most of that growth is likely to look like what is already spreading: rooftop panels, inverter and battery systems, and solar mini-grids in towns the grid serves badly. Quality varies a lot. If you are buying, ask for the panel and battery ratings in writing, and buy from a seller who will still be there to honour the warranty.